In response to a recent post from Jeff Watson, I said “I don’t believe markets can be accurately predicted. I have not yet seen any evidence that proves me wrong and would appreciate learning from those who have access to such science or methods. Markets are not subject to natural laws. My objective is to lose as little purchasing power over time as possible. I have not found a way to accurately [and consistently] predict even a single future price.”
Rocky Humbert, the legendary speculator and curmudgeon, promptly responded with “I tend to agree with you, but your statement as composed could also be applied to the existence of G-d. Based on your blog, I know you to be a man of faith. How does one reconcile (”using science or methods”) the lack of faith in the predictability of markets with a faith in G-d? Or perhaps is this logically consistent?”
I am happy that my faith has come through my previous posts and thank Rocky for asking this question.
1. I have not seen any federal funding for research into existence of God in recent times. Basic science research goes nowhere without massive funding. I certainly do not propose adding yet another line item to the already gargantuan federal budget that the government believes we can finance but how can one begin to answer profound questions without much scientific study? Perhaps this is like living in the second century and trying to prove the existence of electrons and protons and the genome.
2. I have no irrefutable way to prove the existence of God aside from the miracles in my own life. Some of my reasons for having faith in God are documented here. Having faith and having proof are two different matters. Did everything happen a certain way for me by mere coincidence? Some may say that random events can line up perfectly and repeatedly. Others may say that hard work or luck is the cause. I find it easier to believe that an omnipotent God whose reasons I may not understand has arranged everything for a certain purpose. I have no internal struggle about my faith in God despite the lack of scientific verifiable proof.
3. “Penn State Clips” mentions interesting “Books like Gerald L. Schroeder’s The Science of God: The Convergence of Scientific and Biblical Wisdom, Francis Collins’ The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief, and the various works of Josh McDowell and Lee Strobel.” Then continues with a very nice point “I agree with you that the beauty of nature is, to me, a proof of God’s existence. It strains credulity for me to believe that the beauty and complexity of all of creation came about by chance. And we only get to see the tiny fraction here on Earth!”
4. I believe that market cycles can be understood by humans who take part in such cycles. I also believe that in the long run people will benefit from diversifying their postponed expenditures in different asset classes. Beating the markets every single year or month or quarter or in the long run probably matters little. Furthermore, I have little faith that the current binary computer models can reliably predict the complex interrelationships in ever changing markets. An interesting read may be the uncertainty principle.
5. Since I am not on a mission to prove anyone anything, I can write my thoughts at the current time based on my limited life and experiences. Some may believe that markets are completely predictable and may even be able to “win” with their systems. I wish they will choose to share their “proofs” as those works may become cornerstones of new and amazing human discoveries and progress. Others may feel God’s love and grace are the “opium” the simple ones like me need to get through life. Certainly evolution will not be quick enough in that deep hole at the time of greatest despair or in the moment of amazing joy to revert the species to the mean. When I read what I wrote last year, I laugh. Maybe a year from now I will laugh about this post.
6. I welcome all thoughts, opinions, debates and proofs. I accept everyone the way I hope God will accepts me with all my flaws, opinions, and thoughts.
I realize that this is probably not the rock solid evidence or reconciliation that Rocky may have been expecting but felt it was better to post rather than have it in the draft folder forever.